Monday, February 1, 2010

MLB Defensive Metrics

Most advanced defensive metrics for baseball have involved dividing the field into zones (see image at right)

However, this creates an arbitrary distinction between which balls are "peers" (within the same zone) of others.  Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus suggests a system where the angle from -45 - 45 is used to measure which position takes on responsibility for a ball, but this can really only be used for ground balls.

Still, I posit that even with the new camera tracking system for every play which is being installed around the league, that this is the foundation for the best ground ball measurement system in baseball.  The only additions which should be made are the speed of the ball and the general defensive positioning so that accurate expected outcomes can be calculated.

For air-outs (fly balls and liners) the new system should be able to determine two things that will give us perfect feedback on defensive prowess.  First, it will determine the distance from the nearest fielders where the ball landed or was caught, and second, it will determine the amount of time in the air.  For all but a few liners that go "through" an infielder, or carom from one player to another, this should allow accurate expected versus actual metrics to be calculated.

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